The Steelers have finally had a somewhat stable ground game this year, but unfortunately for them, their primary two starters are slated to be free agents next year. Najee Harris had his fifth-year option declined surprisingly last year, and with no extension in place before the season he will likely test free agency unless franchise tagged. That would come in close to 12 million dollars, and considering the team didn’t view him as worth the 7 million dollar option, it seems unlikely he gets the tag.
Jaylen Warren is scheduled to be a restricted free agent next year, meaning the team will have the option to keep him on a one-year deal at either the original round, second round, or first-round tender. Considering his undrafted status, he likely needs a second-round tender to not get poached, which is estimated to be worth close to five million dollars.
As I did with the quarterback room, I want to dive into the different routes this team could realistically take to build out this room for 2025. I’ll rank them both based on my favorite options as well as the most realistic ones. Here is every avenue that the Steelers can take in the running back room this offseason.
7. Steelers sign a top free agent
Of every realistic option for the Steelers to build out the running back room in 2025, this has to be the worst. In this scenario, the team allows both Warren and Harris to walk and set their sights on a top-free agent to replace them. For just about every reason in the book, this makes no sense for the team.
For starters, the next class lacks the top names we saw last year. The best names are Aaron Jones and J.K. Dobbins, and both have issues on the surface that should make giving them top money unlikely. Even if there was a top name, paying for a top running back has, historically, been a bad move. At that point, just pay Harris instead of risking a new overpaid face in the room.
6. Steelers pay Harris like an elite back
There are two realistic routes the Steelers can take with Harris while bringing him back. While we have seen the running-back market take back some ground last year, it doesn’t seem like this upcoming class will have the marquee players that 2024 did, which could force teams interested in Harris to pay up.
If that is the case, and Pittsburgh ends up overpaying to keep him, they will do so with the idea that he is the sole bell-cow running back like he was as a rookie. You can’t afford to give him a 12-plus million dollar deal and give Warren another 5 or so million. You pay Harris like many fans have perceived him and fill out the roster with day three rookies and/or veteran benefit contracts.
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I have a major issue with this, and I also find it unlikely that the Steelers go this route. If the team valued him that highly, they would have picked up his seven million dollar tag last year. Giving him that much more money is illogical from a business standpoint. On top of this, paying an average running back that much is a recipe for disaster. This isn’t the worst case, but close to it.
5. Steelers take a running back in the first round
I honestly don’t see the bottom two options being remote possibilities, but everything else is now on the table. That said, I think this would be a horrible mistake of a choice if the Steelers opt to dip their toe back into the first-round running back conversation during this draft, as history has shown that you can get good value later in the draft at the position.
More than likely Ashton Jeanty will be off the board before when the team is picking, meaning you would be missing out on the top prospect. There isn’t much consensus as to who is the next best back, and this class seems filled with middle-of-the-road prospects. Reaching for one to fill the hole in the first round is a mistake. Address more important needs early and, if the need is there, look for another back on day two or three.
4. Steelers run it all back
As stated earlier, there I foresee Harris’s offseason going in two directions. As mentioned before, teams get desperate following the success of the Ravens, Packers, and Eagles, so he gets paid a lot more than he is worth. On the other hand, teams can see him for what he is (a very average power back) and his market could be considerably cooler, somewhere in the 8-10 million dollar a year range.
If that is the case, the team could realistically run everything back next year. I expect Cordarrelle Patterson to remain on the roster as a returner and offensive chess piece (he doesn’t cost much and has proven his worth). Warren could sign his tender and Harris would return on a new deal, keeping this group strong through 2025.
The reason it ranks so low is that I don’t believe Harris is keen to stay here on a deal that low. I think he feels slighted by the team, and he hasn’t always seemed thrilled with Pittsburgh as a home. If he is only getting middle-of-the-road deals, he may opt for a fresh start. I’m fine with that choice as well, as I think overpaying for Harris would be a massive mistake this offseason.
3. Steelers do the free agent rebuild
The next two options are very intriguing, and they carry a lot of risk and reward. What I’ve dubbed the free agent rebuild, the team would scrap their current room entirely (sans Patterson) and look for cheap free agents to build out the bulk of the room. They would target players they have historically liked or think could rebound on the cheap. Think what the Chargers did with Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
Looking over the free agency class next year, some names that stick out are Javonte Williams, A.J. Dillon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Elijah Mitchell. The strategy is simple: you sign as many of these names to cheap, low-risk deals, and you see who can turn their careers around and contribute.
I personally think Williams would be a sound fit considering he would be two years removed from injury and should be healthier and back to his old self. Dillon also fits the type of back this team usually looks for. Sure, a rookie would likely be on the docket in the later rounds, but you are banking on some former players living up to past expectations. It worked for the Chargers, and the cheap cost allowed them to address other positions.
2. Steelers build around a rookie running back
Once again, this scenario sees the team dump their current room, but instead of attacking free agency, the focus is landing on a capable running back on day two of the draft with the intent of them being the guy moving forward. You can sprinkle in either a day three pick or a veteran to serve as rotational depth.
If the team goes down this route, either of the Ohio St. running backs would make a lot of sense. Both have a lot of tread on their tires and could be fixtures in the offense for the long term. Dylan Sampson has also put together a great season and would be a logical fit, as would Ollie Gordon. The goal here is to find a stable starter for the next few years while not wasting a top pick to acquire a running back.
1. Steelers make Warren their starter
If I had to guess how this running back room is treated next offseason, this seems like the most likely option. If the team was in love with Harris, they would have picked up his option, and I don’t think he has done enough this season to warrant a huge deal. Let someone else pay him and take the risk of running backs on big second contracts. Warren has consistently been the more efficient and versatile runner, and since healing up, he has been back to his productive ways.
The issue with Warren is that he does more with less. While his total touches could tick up, you don’t want him handling 20-30 touches a game. Instead, finding some good role players to give Warren a chance to rest makes sense. I’ll jump back to either Williams or Dillon in free agency or finding a viable rookie in the third round or later.
Pittsburgh loves Warren and what he brings to the table, and he could be had for just his tender amount or even a small extension. Again, you need to provide him with a viable compliment, but his touches could increase to 15-20 a game while the rest of the depth chart finds various other roles. This keeps the room talented but still cheap for a Steelers team that wants to run the ball.