You don't have to look long and hard to find a bonafide Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Pittsburgh. T.J. Watt has been the face of the franchise on the Steelers since Ben Roethlisberger's retirement and has already built a Hall of Fame resume.
The 2021 Defensive Player of the Year winner was the runner-up for the DPOY award in 2023, and many believed last year's sack leader should have earned his second trophy in this department.
We are more than halfway through the 2024 season, and the Steelers possess one of the league's best defensive units. Entering Week 11, Pittsburgh is 2nd in points per game allowed (16.2) and 8th in yards allowed per game 302.7. The collection of these factors automatically puts Watt in the discussion for the most prestigious award handed to a defensive player in the NFL.
But right now, Watt is coming off a quiet game and coasting on his DPOY odds.
T.J. Watt's quiet game didn't negatively impact DPOY odds
Against the Washington Commanders in Week 10, Watt was mostly held in check. While teams always shift attention his way, Watt didn't do much to overcome what Washington threw at him from a pass-rush standpoint.
By the end of the contest, the Steelers allowed 27 points and Watt didn't so much as record a tackle. On 35 pass-rush snaps (56 total defensive snaps), Watt managed just two pressures against the Commanders in what realistically was one of the quietest games of his NFL career.
After Week 10 came to a close, we half expected to see phenomenal defenders bridge the gap in the DPOY race. But this didn't happen. Instead, Watt's lead as the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year is as secure as it's ever been.
Entering Week 11, Watt leads the field with -200 odds to win the DPOY award, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Dexter Lawrence and Chris Jones are tied for a distant second place with +1000 odds, while Will Anderson Jr. and Trey Hendrickson are next on the list with +1200 odds.
Updated Defensive Player of the Year odds before MNF in Week 10, via @DKSportsbook:
— Tommy Jaggi (@TommyJaggi) November 12, 2024
T.J. Watt: -200 👀
Dexter Lawrence: +1000
Chris Jones: +1000
Will Anderson Jr.: +1200
Trey Hendrickson: +1200
With just 6.5 sacks on the season, Watt is on pace for just over 12 sacks in 2024. While this is the number of defenders who only dream of hitting, this would rank sixth among the most sacks he's recorded in a single season (and Watt has only played 17 regular-season games once in a single year in his career).
Watt is on the pace for seven fewer sacks than he recorded last season... but it might not matter.
The Steelers star is on pace to see a regression in his numbers this season, but this is partially due to the unprecedented attention he is drawing. Thanks to the new chip percentage stat from Pro Football Focus, we can see how often opposing teams devote an extra player to slowing down Pittsburgh's top defender.
If the Steelers continue to play great defense and win football, Watt will remain at the top of the Defensive Player of the Year odds -- regardless of what his individual production looks like. Right now, the odds suggest there isn't much competition for the DPOY award this year.