It was a mild surprise when the Pittsburgh Steelers extended Nick Herbig this offseason. He was certainly deserving as an up-and-coming pass rusher, but his deal posed questions about the rest of the room.
You already have T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith on long-term deals. While Pittsburgh can afford that for now, next season will be a different story.
Everyone jumps to the conclusion that Highsmith will ultimately be the odd man out. However, it feels like the Steelers are taking a major risk with Watt at this point.
In short, they are gambling that he returns to form. If he doesn’t, the team could be in trouble next offseason.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are making the ultimate gamble with T.J. Watt
For nearly a decade, Watt was rightfully viewed as one of the top edge rushers in the league. The former defensive player of the year has earned the big money deals that he was given.
Fast forward to now, and the past two seasons have proven to be lean for Watt. Injuries and teams prioritizing stopping him have led to back-to-back down years from a production standpoint. That didn’t stop the team from making him the highest-paid edge rusher last year. A deal like that comes with a high price tag and a lot of guaranteed money.
If Watt returns to form, this becomes less of an issue. He would be back to his elite playing ways and has earned the big contract he has.
What if he doesn’t, though? Suddenly, you have a massive contract on the books for a declining player. You also have to decide on the future of Highsmith, who has quietly stacked good seasons.
If Watt delivers a lackluster year while Highsmith maintains his steady play, how do you justify keeping him aside from his standing as a team legend?
Cutting him outright would be hard to do. He would eat up $52 million in cap space, vs only saving the team $42 million. Making him a post-June cut would save them a little cap space, but would ultimately spread that dead cap hit over multiple years.
Everyone will naturally say trade him, but three seasons of mediocre play and a massive contract will be untradable. Unless a team can afford him and feels like he can return to form, he isn’t getting dealt. Even if he did, it would be for pennies on the dollar.
Watt needs to have a big season, both for himself and the team. If he doesn’t, the Steelers will end up in a tough spot. They have some hard choices coming up in their edge rusher room, and Watt could end up leaving this team a wreck.
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