Since before the 2024 season, T.J. Watt was the odds-on favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award this season... and it wasn't hard to see why. The Pittsburgh Steelers star finished second place in DPOY voting to Myles Garrett last year after earning 19.0 sacks, and we thought another productive year was coming.
Unfortunately, Watt had a quiet season in 2024. Not all of this was his fault. The four-time First-Team All-Pro edge rusher was the most frequently chipped player in the league this year and opposing offenses knew where he was going to line up on nearly every play in an effort to slow him down.
However, the attention Watt drew led to a statistical setback for the 30-year-old pass rusher. Heading into the Steelers' season finale against the Bengals, Watt has a mere 11.5 sacks under his belt. This is nothing to scoff at, but for a player who has reached as high as 22.5 sacks in a season, Watt's production is underwhelming.
Even with the unspectacular statistical output, Watt currently leads all players in Defensive Player of the Year odds... but the gap is closing.
Entering Week 18, Watt has -110 odds to win the DPOY award for the 2024 season. This is followed closely by Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II with +115 odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For most of the season, Watt was a runaway favorite for the Defensive Player of the Year award all the way through mid-December. Now entering the final week of the season, it's up for grabs.
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There are two reasons for this. The most notable is Watt's quiet performances and utter lack of production over the past two weeks. Since his respectable showing against the Eagles, Watt has had zero sacks and just one tackle for a loss over the holiday stretch against the Ravens and Chiefs.
The second reason for the drop in Watt's DPOY odds is due to the collapse of the team. It's easier to hand an NFL honor to a player who lacks production but makes the defense elite. In recent weeks, Watt has been both unproductive and the Steelers' defense has been bad. This was on display for the world to see on Christmas Day against Kansas City.
With the team and the defense struggling plus Watt's lack of production, his odds have taken a significant dip over the past two weeks.
T.J. Watt must have a dominant performance vs. Bengals to boost DPOY odds
If T.J. Watt wants to distance himself from the pack before NFL Honors voting, he needs to explode against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. As of right now, it would be hard to make a DPOY case for a defender who ranks 4th in sacks and 37th in pressures and whose team does not statistically have a top-5 defense.
With only one game left, it's highly unlikely Watt will claim another sack title. Leading the pack in this department are Bengals' Trey Hendrickson and Browns' Myles Garrett with 14.0 sacks each. Watt would need to have a three-sack performance against Cincinnati without Garrett or Hendrickson earning a sack in the finale.
The Steelers also play nationally in primetime, so all eyes will be watching. This could be a good thing for Watt who is looking to finish the season on a high note. In his first matchup with rookie offensive tackle Amarius Mims, Watt recorded two sacks, three tackles for a loss, and five quarterback hits. If he can have a repeat performance in primetime action, it will catch the attention of Associated Press votes.
In all likelihood, the Pittsburgh Steelers need to come away with a win in this contest if Watt is to claim his second Defensive Player of the Year award. Losing to the Bengals —especially if the defense plays poorly— would be a bad look for Watt and would mark the Steelers' fourth straight loss.
As fans, we care far more about the success of the team than an individual award. But Watt's legendary career and place in the record books could be defined by either having one or two DPOY awards, and it all comes down to this.