Aaron Rodgers is joining the Pittsburgh Steelers. On Thursday, NFL Insider Tom Pelissero broke the news that Rodgers plans to fly to Pittsburgh and sign with the team before the start of mandatory minicamp on June 10. There's no question Rodgers is an upgrade over quarterback Mason Rudolph, but Vegas oddsmakers just gave Steelers fans a disappointing reality check.
Seth Walder of ESPN posted the updated line for the Steelers at the Jets in Week 1. Before the news broke that Rodgers was signing, Pittsburgh was two-and-a-half-point favorites. Surprisingly, they are just three-point favorites in the season opener against New York even after the news.
Does Rodgers really only move the line half a point? Of course, he's worth more than Rudolph. So why doesn't this make sense? The answer is relatively simple.
Oddsmakers were confident Aaron Rodgers would sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers
Oddsmakers are plugged in; it's how they make the big bucks. They weren't oblivious to everything that was happening with the Pittsburgh Steelers' quarterback situation, and they had a great idea that it was always going to be Rodgers at the helm. If they thought differently, this line would have moved significantly. But it didn't.
Had Rodgers announced his retirement from the NFL instead of announcing that he was signing with the Steelers, you would have seen a monumental shift in not just the Week 1 odds, but the projected season win totals.
Without Rodgers, NFL analysts predict that the Pittsburgh Steelers could snap the NFL's longest streak without a losing record, which dates all the way back to 2003. But with Rodgers signed, most believe the Seelers are bound to finish in the 9-10 win range (which is what we've come to expect just about every year from this organization).
Aaron Rodgers isn't the difference-maker he once was. He led the New York Jets to a dismal record of 4-13 during the 2024 season. The Steelers are a better franchise and the bar is expectedly higher, but don't expect Rodgers' signing to all of a sudden vault Pittsburgh into being a Super Bowl contender.
We'll see how things go this summer. We know that Vegas oddsmakers have had their eyes on this situation for a long time, but the fact that the line for Steelers-Jets in Week 1 only moved half a point despite having certainty that Aaron Rodgers will be the quarterback is telling.