If there's one positional group that's been easy to predict players that will make the initial 53-man roster for the Pittsburgh Steelers, it's been the edge rusher position. Historically, the Steelers keep just four edge rushers (or, to use the more dated term, outside linebackers).
Though the Steelers still plan to run a base 3-4 defense with new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, they will likely be in subpackage often. The role of this position is clearly defined: set the edge against the run and get after the quarterback on passing plays.
As I continue my early roster odds series, Pittsburgh's edge rusher group already feels decided before the first snap of Steelers training camp.
Early projected chances of each Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher making the 53-man roster
T.J. Watt: 100%
There's no question here. While fans have taken issue with T.J. Watt's steep contract extension last year and declining performance over the past two seasons, there's no chance in the world that the four-time First-Team All-Pro defender and 2021 Defensive Player of the Year won't be on Pittsburgh's 53-man roster.
If Omar Khan were to even flirt with the idea of trading Watt, it wouldn't come until the November trade deadline... and that would only be if the Steelers had a horrific first half of the 2026 season.
Nick Herbig: 100%
After earning a four-year, $100 million contract extension this spring, Nick Herbig might be the safest player on the entire team. Not only that, but I recently ranked him atop the most valuable future assets of the franchise. He's expected to have an increased role this year.
Alex Highsmith: 99%
Alex Highsmith is somehow still underrated at this stage of his career. It's possible that the veteran even logs more snaps than both Watt and Herbig.
In terms of talent and the team's current roster makeup, there's no doubt he's a roster lock... but I did leave just a tiny bit of wiggle room in the event the Steelers love what they have and decide to trade Highsmith before roster cutdowns. However, I think there's greater than a 99 percent chance he's on the Steelers' Week 1 roster.
Jack Sawyer: 98%
It's hard to feel so confident about a former fourth-rounder's chances of making the roster, but the Steelers seem to be more than comfortable with Jack Sawyer rounding out the edge rusher position, and the depth behind him is less than desirable.
Sawyer showed glimpses of playmaking ability as a rookie with a sack, three tackles for a loss, four pass defenses, and two interceptions. I won't say he's a guaranteed roster lock, but he's extremely close.
Jamin Davis: 3%
Jamin Davis was once a first-round pick as an off-ball linebacker, thanks to his impressive athletic profile. Despite playing mostly inside linebacker for the Commanders since 2021 (while also seeing brief stops in Minnesota and Las Vegas over the past two seasons), it appears the Steelers will try Davis at outside linebacker during training camp.
Davis is a journeyman at this point who could be switching positions, so the odds of him cracking the Steelers' 53-man roster are slim.
Julius Welschof: 0%
Julius Welschof of Germany is an International Pathway Player (IPP), and as such, his presence would allow the team to keep a 17th player on their 16-man practice squad. But when it comes to the 53-man roster, Welschof essentially has no shot. The 29-year-old has hung around for a few years, but has never suited up for a game or logged an NFL snap in the regular season.
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