With OTAs and mandatory minicamp in the books, the Pittsburgh Steelers enter a long break before players are required to report to training camp on Tuesday, July 28. This is the calm before the storm, because when camp kicks off, heated positional battles will ensue.
No Steelers camp battle will draw more eyes this year than that of the quarterback position. Since the moment Pittsburgh selected Penn State's Drew Allar with the No. 76 overall pick, we assumed that Aaron Rodgers would return and that one player in a four-man group would be the odd man out.
While training camp and the preseason could ultimately decide the fate of the QB position in Pittsburgh, I've taken the liberty to predict the early odds of each quarterback making the final 53-man roster in 2026.
These odds are based on my summer predictions and the current feel of the team, while assuming none of these quarterbacks suffer injuries that would land them on IR or the PUP list before roster cutdowns.
Early projected chances of each Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback making the 53-man roster
Aaron Rodgers: 100%
We don't need to spend much time here. Despite the fact that Aaron Rodgers turns 43 years old this season and potentially backsliding, the Steelers didn't commit $22.5 million plus incentives to Rodgers for him not to make the roster.
Rodgers will be the starter for the whole season, unless maybe Pittsburgh is out of the playoff race down the stretch (which they never are).
Drew Allar: 99%
Like Mike Tomlin said back in 2021 regarding leaving the Steelers for the collegiate ranks, "Never say never... but never." That's how I feel about Drew Allar missing the 53-man roster as a rookie. The Steelers didn't spend a high third-round pick on Allar to stash him on the practice squad.
Though Allar is hardly ready to play, he screams developmental QB3. Allar won't see the field this year unless things go terribly wrong, but because of the investment, he's essentially a lock to make the roster—let's call it a 99 percent chance, just to be safe.
Will Howard: 55%
There's a large crowd of Steelers fans who still believe that Will Howard is the future at quarterback, but we need to pump the brakes. Regardless of his college resume (which includes a national championship), Howard is a sixth-round pick who didn't log so much as a single preseason snap as a rookie in 2025, let alone a regular-season snap.
I believe Howard has the edge on the QB2 competition, thanks to his youth and the uncertainty of what he might offer, but it's a closer race than some fans are willing to admit.
Mason Rudolph: 46%
When you consider that Mason Rudolph is typically regarded as one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league, it's hard to believe that he might be on the outside of the roster looking in, but here we are. Head coach Mike McCarthy could opt for Rudolph's experience over the unproven Howard, and if Rodgers were to go down for a 2-3 game stretch, the team might feel more comfortable with Rudolph at the helm.
Still, Pittsburgh knows what they are getting in Rudolph, and it's unspectacular overall. The veteran is hardly pushed off the roster already before Steelers training camp, but if the coaching staff had to make a decision today, he might be the odd man out.
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